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Intermodel Variability and Mechanism Attribution of Central and Southeastern U.S. Anomalous Cooling in the Twentieth Century as Simulated by CMIP5 Models
Pan, ZT (Pan, Zaitao)[ 1 ]; Liu, XD (Liu, Xiaodong)[ 2 ]; Kumar, S (Kumar, Sanjiv)[ 3 ]; Gao, ZQ (Gao, Zhiqiu)[ 4 ]; Kinter, J (Kinter, James)[ 3 ]
2013-09-30
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF CLIMATE
Volume26Issue:17Pages:6215-6237
Subtype期刊论文
Abstract

Some parts of the United States, especially the southeastern and central portion, cooled by up to 2 degrees C during the twentieth century, while the global mean temperature rose by 0.6 degrees C (0.76 degrees C from 1901 to 2006). Studies have suggested that the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) may be responsible for this cooling, termed the warming hole (WH), while other works reported that regional-scale processes such as the low-level jet and evapotranspiration contribute to the abnormity. In phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), only a few of the 53 simulations could reproduce the cooling. This study analyzes newly available simulations in experiments from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) from 28 models, totaling 175 ensemble members. It was found that 1) only 19 out of 100 all-forcing historical ensemble members simulated negative temperature trend (cooling) over the southeast United States, with 99 members underpredicting the cooling rate in the region; 2) the missing of cooling in the models is likely due to the poor performance in simulating the spatial pattern of the cooling rather than the temporal variation, as indicated by a larger temporal correlation coefficient than spatial one between the observation and simulations; 3) the simulations with greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing only produced strong warming in the central United States that may have compensated the cooling; and 4) the all-forcing historical experiment compared with the natural-forcing-only experiment showed a well-defined WH in the central United States, suggesting that land surface processes, among others, could have contributed to the cooling in the twentieth century.

DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00559.1
Indexed BySCI ; EI
Language英语
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ieecas.cn/handle/361006/9979
Collection古环境研究室
Corresponding AuthorPan, ZT (Pan, Zaitao)[ 1 ]
Affiliation1.Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri;
2.Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China;
3.Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, Maryland;
4.Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;
5.Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, Maryland
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Pan, ZT ,Liu, XD ,Kumar, S ,et al. Intermodel Variability and Mechanism Attribution of Central and Southeastern U.S. Anomalous Cooling in the Twentieth Century as Simulated by CMIP5 Models[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2013,26(17):6215-6237.
APA Pan, ZT ,Liu, XD ,Kumar, S ,Gao, ZQ ,&Kinter, J .(2013).Intermodel Variability and Mechanism Attribution of Central and Southeastern U.S. Anomalous Cooling in the Twentieth Century as Simulated by CMIP5 Models.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,26(17),6215-6237.
MLA Pan, ZT ,et al."Intermodel Variability and Mechanism Attribution of Central and Southeastern U.S. Anomalous Cooling in the Twentieth Century as Simulated by CMIP5 Models".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 26.17(2013):6215-6237.
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