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NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN CHINA UNDER A1B SCENARIO
Li, XZ (Li Xin-zhou)[ 1 ]; Lilt, XD (Liu Xiao-dong)[ 1,2 ]
2014-06-15
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY
Volume20Issue:2Pages:121-134
Subtype期刊论文
Abstract

The regional climate model (RegCM3), developed by the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics and nested in one-way mode within the latest version of Community Climate System Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, is used to conduct a set of experiments to examine its capability of climate simulation for the past 50 years and to explore possible changes in extreme precipitation (EP) in the next 100 years under the A1B scenario. Compared with the observation from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia and CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation, RegCM3 reasonably reproduces the spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and EP in eastern China. Based on the present-day analysis, this study examines the changes in monsoonal precipitation over eastern China in mid- and late-21st century relative to the reference period of 1970-1999. It is found that the precipitation will increase over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and areas to its north, and decrease over coastal areas to its south, especially in late-21st century. The various indices reflecting extreme events showed that the EP will enhance 10%-15% over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and areas to its north, and weaken over the areas to its south. The summer monsoon will strengthen and shift northwards under SERS AlB, bringing more water vapor and energy from the Indian Ocean and South China Sea for precipitation and eventually more precipitation over northern China.

KeywordGlobal Warming Climate Prediction East China Extreme Precipitation Numerical Simulation
Indexed BySCIE
Language英语
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ieecas.cn/handle/361006/9747
Collection古环境研究室
Corresponding AuthorLi, XZ (Li Xin-zhou)[ 1 ]
Affiliation1.State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, ChineseAcademy of Sciences, Xi’an 710075 China;
2.Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049 China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Li, XZ ,Lilt, XD . NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN CHINA UNDER A1B SCENARIO[J]. JOURNAL OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY,2014,20(2):121-134.
APA Li, XZ ,&Lilt, XD .(2014).NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN CHINA UNDER A1B SCENARIO.JOURNAL OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY,20(2),121-134.
MLA Li, XZ ,et al."NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN CHINA UNDER A1B SCENARIO".JOURNAL OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY 20.2(2014):121-134.
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