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Comparing the current and early 20th century warm periods in China
Soon, WWH (Soon, Willie Wei-Hock)[ 1 ]; Connolly, R (Connolly, Ronan); Connolly, M (Connolly, Michael); O'Neil, P (O'Neil, Peter)[ 2 ]; Zheng, JY (Zheng, Jingyun)[ 3 ]; Ge, QS (Ge, Quansheng)[ 3 ]; Hao, ZX (Hao, Zhixin)[ 3 ]; Yan, H (Yan, Hong)[ 4 ]
2018-10
Source PublicationEARTH-SCIENCE REVIEWS
Volume185Pages:80-101
Subtype期刊论文
Abstract

Most estimates of Chinese regional Surface Air Temperatures since the late-19th century have identified two relatively warm periods – 1920s–40s and 1990s–present. However, there is considerable debate over how the two periods compare to each other. Some argue the current warm period is much warmer than the earlier warm period. Others argue the earlier warm period was comparable to the present. In this collaborative paper, including authors from both camps, the reasons for this ongoing debate are discussed. Several different estimates of Chinese temperature trends, both new and previously published, are considered. A study of the effects of urbanization bias on Chinese temperature trends was carried out using the new updated version of the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) – version 4 (currently in beta production). It is shown that there are relatively few rural stations with long records, but urbanization bias artificially makes the early warm period seem colder and the recent warm period seem warmer. However, current homogenization approaches (which attempt to reduce non-climatic biases) also tend to have similar effects, making it unclear whether reducing or increasing the relative warmth of each period is most appropriate. A sample of 17 Chinese temperature proxy series (12 regional and 5 national) is compared and contrasted specifically for the period since the 19th century. Most proxy series imply a warm early-20th century period and a warm recent period, but the relative warmth of these two periods differs between proxies. Also, with some proxies, one or other of the warm periods is absent.

KeywordChina Regional Temperatures Global Warming Urbanization Bias Global Climate Models Temperature Proxies Early 20th Century Warm Period
DOI10.1016/j.earscirev.2018.05.013
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ieecas.cn/handle/361006/9589
Collection古环境研究室
Corresponding AuthorConnolly, R (Connolly, Ronan)
Affiliation1.Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA;
2.Independent Scientists, Dublin, Ireland;
3.School of Mechanical and Materials Engineering (retired), University College Dublin, Ireland;
4.Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101,China;
5.State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Soon, WWH ,Connolly, R ,Connolly, M ,et al. Comparing the current and early 20th century warm periods in China[J]. EARTH-SCIENCE REVIEWS,2018,185:80-101.
APA Soon, WWH .,Connolly, R .,Connolly, M .,O'Neil, P .,Zheng, JY .,...&Yan, H .(2018).Comparing the current and early 20th century warm periods in China.EARTH-SCIENCE REVIEWS,185,80-101.
MLA Soon, WWH ,et al."Comparing the current and early 20th century warm periods in China".EARTH-SCIENCE REVIEWS 185(2018):80-101.
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