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Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 A degrees C global warming could be dangerous
Hansen, James1; Sato, Makiko1; Hearty, Paul2; Ruedy, Reto3,4; Kelley, Maxwell3,4; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie5; Russell, Gary4; Tselioudis, George4; Cao, Junji6; Rignot, Eric7,8; Velicogna, Isabella7,8; Tormey, Blair9; Donovan, Bailey10; Kandiano, Evgeniya11; von Schuckmann, Karina12; Kharecha, Pushker1,4; Legrande, Allegra N.4; Bauer, Michael4,13; Lo, Kwok-Wai3,4
AbstractWe use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10-40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500-2000-year) timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to +6-9 m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 A degrees C warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 A degrees C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4) increasingly powerful storms; and (5) nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50-150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.
WOS HeadingsScience & Technology ; Physical Sciences
Indexed BySCI
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000374702300006
Citation statistics
Cited Times:322[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Affiliation1.Columbia Univ, Earth Inst, Climate Sci Awareness & Solut, New York, NY 10115 USA
2.Univ N Carolina, Dept Environm Studies, Wilmington, NC 28403 USA
3.Trinnovium LLC, New York, NY 10025 USA
4.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 USA
5.CEA CNRS UVSQ, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Gif Sur Yvette, France
6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Earth Environm, Key Lab Aerosol Chem & Phys, Xian 710075, Peoples R China
7.CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, 4800 Oak Grove Dr, Pasadena, CA 91109 USA
8.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA 92697 USA
9.Western Carolina Univ, Program Study Developed Shorelines, Cullowhee, NC 28723 USA
10.E Carolina Univ, Dept Geol Sci, Greenville, NC 27858 USA
11.Helmholtz Ctr Ocean Res, GEOMAR, Wischhofstr 1-3, D-24148 Kiel, Germany
12.Univ Toulon & Var, Mediterranean Inst Oceanog, La Garde, France
13.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY 10027 USA
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Hansen, James,Sato, Makiko,Hearty, Paul,et al. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 A degrees C global warming could be dangerous[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2016,16(6):3761-3812.
APA Hansen, James.,Sato, Makiko.,Hearty, Paul.,Ruedy, Reto.,Kelley, Maxwell.,...&Lo, Kwok-Wai.(2016).Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 A degrees C global warming could be dangerous.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,16(6),3761-3812.
MLA Hansen, James,et al."Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 A degrees C global warming could be dangerous".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 16.6(2016):3761-3812.
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