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Quantifying climatic variability in monsoonal northern China over the last 2200 years and its role in driving Chinese dynastic changes
Li, Jianyong1; Dodson, John1,2; Yan, Hong1; Zhang, David D.3,4; Zhang, Xiaojian5; Xu, Qinghai6; Lee, Harry F.3,4; Pei, Qing7; Cheng, Bo8; Li, Chunhai9; Ni, Jian10; Sun, Aizhi11; Lu, Fengyan1; Zong, Yongqiang12,13
2017-03-01
发表期刊QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS
卷号159期号:2017页码:35-46
文章类型Article
摘要Our understanding on the spatial-temporal patterns of climatic variability over the last few millennia in the East Asian monsoon-dominated northern China (NC), and its role at a macro-scale in affecting the prosperity and depression of Chinese dynasties is limited. Quantitative high-resolution, regionally-synthesized palaeoclimatic reconstructions as well as simulations, and numerical analyses of their relationships with various fine-scale, numerical agro-ecological, social-economic, and geo-political historical records during the period of China's history, are presented here for NC. We utilize pollen data together with climate modeling to reconstruct and simulate decadal- to centennial-scale variations in precipitation or temperature for NC during the last 2200 years (-200-2000 AD). We find an overall cyclic-pattern (wet/warm or dry/cold) in the precipitation and temperature anomalies on centennial- to millennial-scale that can be likely considered as a representative for the entire NC by comparison with other related climatic records. We suggest that solar activity may play a key role in driving the climatic fluctuations in NC during the last 22 centuries, with its quasi similar to 100, 50, 23, or 22-year periodicity clearly identified in our climatic reconstructions. We employ variation partitioning and redundancy analysis to quantify the independent effects of climatic factors on accounting for the total variation of 17 fine-grained numerical Chinese historical records. We quantitatively illustrate that precipitation (67.4%) may have been more important than temperature (32.5%) in causing the overall agro-ecological and macro-geopolitical shifts in imperial China with NC as the central ruling region and an agricultural heartland over the last 2200 years. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
关键词Pollen Data Northern China Climatic Variability Chinese Dynasties
WOS标题词Science & Technology ; Physical Sciences
DOI10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.01.009
关键词[WOS]ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ; RADIOCARBON AGE CALIBRATION ; TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY ; INNER-MONGOLIA ; POLLEN RECORD ; 2 MILLENNIA ; QUANTITATIVE RECONSTRUCTION ; PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY ; HEMISPHERE TEMPERATURE ; ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
收录类别SCI
语种英语
WOS研究方向Physical Geography ; Geology
WOS类目Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号WOS:000395609300003
引用统计
被引频次:13[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.ieecas.cn/handle/361006/5503
专题现代环境研究室
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Loess & Quaternary Geol, Inst Earth Environm, Xian 710075, Peoples R China
2.Univ New South Wales, Sch Biol Earth & Environm Sci, Sydney, NSW 2033, Australia
3.Univ Hong Kong, Dept Geog, Pokfulam Rd, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
4.Univ Hong Kong, Int Ctr China Dev Study, Pokfulam Rd, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
5.Nanjing Univ, Sch Geog & Oceanog Sci, Nanjing 210093, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
6.Hebei Normal Univ, Inst Nihewan Archaeol, Shijiazhuang 050024, Peoples R China
7.Educ Univ Hong Kong, Dept Social Sci, 10 Lo Ping Rd, Tai Po, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
8.Cent China Normal Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China
9.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Lake Sci & Environm, Nanjing Inst Geog & Limnol, Nanjing 210008, Peoples R China
10.Zhejiang Normal Univ, Coll Chem & Life Sci, Jinhua 321004, Peoples R China
11.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth Sci, 19A Yuquan Rd, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
12.Univ Hong Kong, Dept Earth Sci, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
13.Guangzhou Inst Geog, Guangzhou 510070, Guangdong, Peoples R China
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Li, Jianyong,Dodson, John,Yan, Hong,et al. Quantifying climatic variability in monsoonal northern China over the last 2200 years and its role in driving Chinese dynastic changes[J]. QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS,2017,159(2017):35-46.
APA Li, Jianyong.,Dodson, John.,Yan, Hong.,Zhang, David D..,Zhang, Xiaojian.,...&Zong, Yongqiang.(2017).Quantifying climatic variability in monsoonal northern China over the last 2200 years and its role in driving Chinese dynastic changes.QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS,159(2017),35-46.
MLA Li, Jianyong,et al."Quantifying climatic variability in monsoonal northern China over the last 2200 years and its role in driving Chinese dynastic changes".QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS 159.2017(2017):35-46.
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