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Quantifying climatic variability in monsoonal northern China over the last 2200 years and its role in driving Chinese dynastic changes
Li, Jianyong1; Dodson, John1,2; Yan, Hong1; Zhang, David D.3,4; Zhang, Xiaojian5; Xu, Qinghai6; Lee, Harry F.3,4; Pei, Qing7; Cheng, Bo8; Li, Chunhai9; Ni, Jian10; Sun, Aizhi11; Lu, Fengyan1; Zong, Yongqiang12,13
2017-03-01
Source PublicationQUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS
Volume159Issue:2017Pages:35-46
SubtypeArticle
AbstractOur understanding on the spatial-temporal patterns of climatic variability over the last few millennia in the East Asian monsoon-dominated northern China (NC), and its role at a macro-scale in affecting the prosperity and depression of Chinese dynasties is limited. Quantitative high-resolution, regionally-synthesized palaeoclimatic reconstructions as well as simulations, and numerical analyses of their relationships with various fine-scale, numerical agro-ecological, social-economic, and geo-political historical records during the period of China's history, are presented here for NC. We utilize pollen data together with climate modeling to reconstruct and simulate decadal- to centennial-scale variations in precipitation or temperature for NC during the last 2200 years (-200-2000 AD). We find an overall cyclic-pattern (wet/warm or dry/cold) in the precipitation and temperature anomalies on centennial- to millennial-scale that can be likely considered as a representative for the entire NC by comparison with other related climatic records. We suggest that solar activity may play a key role in driving the climatic fluctuations in NC during the last 22 centuries, with its quasi similar to 100, 50, 23, or 22-year periodicity clearly identified in our climatic reconstructions. We employ variation partitioning and redundancy analysis to quantify the independent effects of climatic factors on accounting for the total variation of 17 fine-grained numerical Chinese historical records. We quantitatively illustrate that precipitation (67.4%) may have been more important than temperature (32.5%) in causing the overall agro-ecological and macro-geopolitical shifts in imperial China with NC as the central ruling region and an agricultural heartland over the last 2200 years. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
KeywordPollen Data Northern China Climatic Variability Chinese Dynasties
WOS HeadingsScience & Technology ; Physical Sciences
DOI10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.01.009
WOS KeywordASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ; RADIOCARBON AGE CALIBRATION ; TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY ; INNER-MONGOLIA ; POLLEN RECORD ; 2 MILLENNIA ; QUANTITATIVE RECONSTRUCTION ; PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY ; HEMISPHERE TEMPERATURE ; ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS Research AreaPhysical Geography ; Geology
WOS SubjectGeography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS IDWOS:000395609300003
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ieecas.cn/handle/361006/5503
Collection现代环境研究室
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Loess & Quaternary Geol, Inst Earth Environm, Xian 710075, Peoples R China
2.Univ New South Wales, Sch Biol Earth & Environm Sci, Sydney, NSW 2033, Australia
3.Univ Hong Kong, Dept Geog, Pokfulam Rd, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
4.Univ Hong Kong, Int Ctr China Dev Study, Pokfulam Rd, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
5.Nanjing Univ, Sch Geog & Oceanog Sci, Nanjing 210093, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
6.Hebei Normal Univ, Inst Nihewan Archaeol, Shijiazhuang 050024, Peoples R China
7.Educ Univ Hong Kong, Dept Social Sci, 10 Lo Ping Rd, Tai Po, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
8.Cent China Normal Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China
9.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Lake Sci & Environm, Nanjing Inst Geog & Limnol, Nanjing 210008, Peoples R China
10.Zhejiang Normal Univ, Coll Chem & Life Sci, Jinhua 321004, Peoples R China
11.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth Sci, 19A Yuquan Rd, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
12.Univ Hong Kong, Dept Earth Sci, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
13.Guangzhou Inst Geog, Guangzhou 510070, Guangdong, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Li, Jianyong,Dodson, John,Yan, Hong,et al. Quantifying climatic variability in monsoonal northern China over the last 2200 years and its role in driving Chinese dynastic changes[J]. QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS,2017,159(2017):35-46.
APA Li, Jianyong.,Dodson, John.,Yan, Hong.,Zhang, David D..,Zhang, Xiaojian.,...&Zong, Yongqiang.(2017).Quantifying climatic variability in monsoonal northern China over the last 2200 years and its role in driving Chinese dynastic changes.QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS,159(2017),35-46.
MLA Li, Jianyong,et al."Quantifying climatic variability in monsoonal northern China over the last 2200 years and its role in driving Chinese dynastic changes".QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS 159.2017(2017):35-46.
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