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Predicting long-term hydrological change caused by climate shifting in the 21st century in the headwater area of the Yellow River Basin
Hu, Jingyi1,2; Wu, Yiping1; Sun, Pengcheng1; Zhao, Fubo1; Sun, Ke1; Li, Tiejian3; Sivakumar, Bellie4; Qiu, Linjing1; Sun, Yuzhu1; Jin, Zhangdong1,5,6
Corresponding AuthorWu, Yiping(rocky.ypwu@gmail.com)
2021-10-02
Source PublicationSTOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
ISSN1436-3240
Pages18
AbstractThe Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is one of the amplifiers of global climate change. The headwater area of the Yellow River Basin (HYRB) on the QTP is the dominant water source region for the whole Yellow River Basin. However, the sensitive responses of hydrological processes to the intensifying climate change are exerting high uncertainties to the water cycle in the HYRB. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential climate change under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) and their hydrological impacts in this region using the ensemble climate data from eight general circulation models (GCMs) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Compared to the baseline (1976-2015), the projected climate indicated a rise of 7.3-7.8% in annual precipitation, 1.3-1.9 degrees C in maximum air temperature, and 1.2-1.8 degrees C in minimum air temperature during the near future period (2020-2059), and an increment of 9.0-17.9%, 1.5-4.5 degrees C, and 1.3-4.5 degrees C in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, during the far future period (2060-2099). The well-simulated SWAT modeling results suggested that due to a wetter and warmer climate, annual average actual evapotranspiration (AET) would increase obviously in the future (31.9-35.3% during the near future and 33.5-54.3% during the far future), which might cause a slight decrease in soil water. Water yield would decrease by 16.5-20.1% during the near future period, implying a worsening water crisis in the future. Till the end of this century, driven by the increased precipitation, water yield would no longer continue to decrease, with a decline by 15-19.5%. Overall, this study can not only provide scientific understanding of the hydrological responses to the future climate in both semi-arid and alpine areas, but also contribute to the decision support for sustainable development of water resources and protection of eco-environment in the HYRB.
KeywordClimate change Hydrological components Representative concentration pathways SWAT
DOI10.1007/s00477-021-02099-6
WOS KeywordLAND USE/COVER CHANGE ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; WATER-RESOURCES ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; SOURCE REGION ; TEMPERATURE ; RUNOFF ; SOIL ; RESPONSES ; PROJECTIONS
Indexed BySCI ; SCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Key Research and Development Program of China[2019YFC0507403] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB40020205] ; Shaanxi Major Theoretical and Practical Program[20ST-106] ; Innovation Team of Shaanxi Province[2021TD-52] ; National Thousand Youth Talent Program of China
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources
Funding OrganizationNational Key Research and Development Program of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Shaanxi Major Theoretical and Practical Program ; Innovation Team of Shaanxi Province ; National Thousand Youth Talent Program of China
WOS SubjectEngineering, Environmental ; Engineering, Civil ; Environmental Sciences ; Statistics & Probability ; Water Resources
WOS IDWOS:000702794000001
PublisherSPRINGER
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ieecas.cn/handle/361006/17077
Collection加速器质谱中心
第四纪科学与全球变化卓越创新中心
Corresponding AuthorWu, Yiping
Affiliation1.Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Xian 710049, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
2.Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Environm, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
3.Tsinghua Univ, State Key Lab Hydrosci & Engn, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China
4.Indian Inst Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Mumbai 400076, Maharashtra, India
5.Chinese Acad Sci, SKLLQG, Inst Earth Environm, Xian 710075, Peoples R China
6.CAS Ctr Excellence Quaternary Sci & Global Change, Xian 710061, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Hu, Jingyi,Wu, Yiping,Sun, Pengcheng,et al. Predicting long-term hydrological change caused by climate shifting in the 21st century in the headwater area of the Yellow River Basin[J]. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,2021:18.
APA Hu, Jingyi.,Wu, Yiping.,Sun, Pengcheng.,Zhao, Fubo.,Sun, Ke.,...&Jin, Zhangdong.(2021).Predicting long-term hydrological change caused by climate shifting in the 21st century in the headwater area of the Yellow River Basin.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,18.
MLA Hu, Jingyi,et al."Predicting long-term hydrological change caused by climate shifting in the 21st century in the headwater area of the Yellow River Basin".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT (2021):18.
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