Predicting long-term hydrological change caused by climate shifting in the 21st century in the headwater area of the Yellow River Basin

doi:10.1007/s00477-021-02099-6

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	Predicting long-term hydrological change caused by climate shifting in the 21st century in the headwater area of the Yellow River Basin
	Hu, Jingyi 1,2; Wu, Yiping 1; Sun, Pengcheng 1; Zhao, Fubo 1; Sun, Ke 1; Li, Tiejian 3; Sivakumar, Bellie 4; Qiu, Linjing 1; Sun, Yuzhu 1; Jin, Zhangdong 1,5,6
通讯作者	Wu, Yiping(rocky.ypwu@gmail.com)
	2021-10-02
发表期刊	STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
ISSN	1436-3240
页码	18
摘要	The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is one of the amplifiers of global climate change. The headwater area of the Yellow River Basin (HYRB) on the QTP is the dominant water source region for the whole Yellow River Basin. However, the sensitive responses of hydrological processes to the intensifying climate change are exerting high uncertainties to the water cycle in the HYRB. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential climate change under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) and their hydrological impacts in this region using the ensemble climate data from eight general circulation models (GCMs) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Compared to the baseline (1976-2015), the projected climate indicated a rise of 7.3-7.8% in annual precipitation, 1.3-1.9 degrees C in maximum air temperature, and 1.2-1.8 degrees C in minimum air temperature during the near future period (2020-2059), and an increment of 9.0-17.9%, 1.5-4.5 degrees C, and 1.3-4.5 degrees C in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, during the far future period (2060-2099). The well-simulated SWAT modeling results suggested that due to a wetter and warmer climate, annual average actual evapotranspiration (AET) would increase obviously in the future (31.9-35.3% during the near future and 33.5-54.3% during the far future), which might cause a slight decrease in soil water. Water yield would decrease by 16.5-20.1% during the near future period, implying a worsening water crisis in the future. Till the end of this century, driven by the increased precipitation, water yield would no longer continue to decrease, with a decline by 15-19.5%. Overall, this study can not only provide scientific understanding of the hydrological responses to the future climate in both semi-arid and alpine areas, but also contribute to the decision support for sustainable development of water resources and protection of eco-environment in the HYRB.
关键词	Climate change Hydrological components Representative concentration pathways SWAT
DOI	10.1007/s00477-021-02099-6
关键词[WOS]	LAND USE/COVER CHANGE ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; WATER-RESOURCES ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; SOURCE REGION ; TEMPERATURE ; RUNOFF ; SOIL ; RESPONSES ; PROJECTIONS
收录类别	SCI ; SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2019YFC0507403] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB40020205] ; Shaanxi Major Theoretical and Practical Program[20ST-106] ; Innovation Team of Shaanxi Province[2021TD-52] ; National Thousand Youth Talent Program of China
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources
项目资助者	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Shaanxi Major Theoretical and Practical Program ; Innovation Team of Shaanxi Province ; National Thousand Youth Talent Program of China
WOS类目	Engineering, Environmental ; Engineering, Civil ; Environmental Sciences ; Statistics & Probability ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:000702794000001
出版者	SPRINGER
引用统计	被引频次：10[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.ieecas.cn/handle/361006/17077
专题	加速器质谱中心第四纪科学与全球变化卓越创新中心
通讯作者	Wu, Yiping
作者单位	1.Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Xian 710049, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 2.Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Environm, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 3.Tsinghua Univ, State Key Lab Hydrosci & Engn, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China 4.Indian Inst Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Mumbai 400076, Maharashtra, India 5.Chinese Acad Sci, SKLLQG, Inst Earth Environm, Xian 710075, Peoples R China 6.CAS Ctr Excellence Quaternary Sci & Global Change, Xian 710061, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hu, Jingyi,Wu, Yiping,Sun, Pengcheng,et al. Predicting long-term hydrological change caused by climate shifting in the 21st century in the headwater area of the Yellow River Basin[J]. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,2021:18.
APA	Hu, Jingyi.,Wu, Yiping.,Sun, Pengcheng.,Zhao, Fubo.,Sun, Ke.,...&Jin, Zhangdong.(2021).Predicting long-term hydrological change caused by climate shifting in the 21st century in the headwater area of the Yellow River Basin.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,18.
MLA	Hu, Jingyi,et al."Predicting long-term hydrological change caused by climate shifting in the 21st century in the headwater area of the Yellow River Basin".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT (2021):18.