| How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate | |
| Connolly, Ronan1; Soon, Willie1; Connolly, Michael; Baliunas, Sallie2; Berglund, Johan; Butler, C. John3; Gustavo Cionco, Rodolfo4,5; Elias, Ana G.6,7; Fedorov, Valery M.8; Harde, Hermann9; Henry, Gregory W.10; Hoyt, Douglas, V; Humlum, Ole11; Legates, David R.12; Luening, Sebastian13; Scafetta, Nicola14; Solheim, Jan-Erik15; Szarka, Laszlo16; van Loon, Harry17; Velasco Herrera, Victor M.18; Willson, Richard C.19; Yan, Hong20; Zhang, Weijia21,22 | |
| 通讯作者 | Connolly, Ronan(ronan@ceres-science.com) |
| 2021-08-01 | |
| 发表期刊 | RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS
 |
| ISSN | 1674-4527 |
| 卷号 | 21期号:6页码:68 |
| 摘要 | In order to evaluate how much Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has influenced Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends, it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities. Sixteen different estimates of the changes in TSI since at least the 19(th) century were compiled from the literature. Half of these estimates are "low variability" and half are "high variability". Meanwhile, five largely-independent methods for estimating Northern Hemisphere temperature trends were evaluated using: 1) only rural weather stations; 2) all available stations whether urban or rural (the standard approach); 3) only sea surface temperatures; 4) tree-ring widths as temperature proxies; 5) glacier length records as temperature proxies. The standard estimates which use urban as well as rural stations were somewhat anomalous as they implied a much greater warming in recent decades than the other estimates, suggesting that urbanization bias might still be a problem in current global temperature datasets - despite the conclusions of some earlier studies. Nonetheless, all five estimates confirm that it is currently warmer than the late 19(th) century, i.e., there has been some "global warming" since the 19(th) century. For each of the five estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperatures, the contribution from direct solar forcing for all sixteen estimates of TSI was evaluated using simple linear least-squares fitting. The role of human activity on recent warming was then calculated by fitting the residuals to the UN IPCC's recommended "anthropogenic forcings" time series. For all five Northern Hemisphere temperature series, different TSI estimates suggest everything from no role for the Sun in recent decades (implying that recent global warming is mostly human-caused) to most of the recent global warming being due to changes in solar activity (that is, that recent global warming is mostly natural). It appears that previous studies (including the most recent IPCC reports) which had prematurely concluded the former, had done so because they failed to adequately consider all the relevant estimates of TSI and/or to satisfactorily address the uncertainties still associated with Northern Hemisphere temperature trend estimates. Therefore, several recommendations on how the scientific community can more satisfactorily resolve these issues are provided. |
| 关键词 | Sun activity (Sun ) solar terrestrial relations (Sun ) sunspots-Sun faculae plages |
| DOI | 10.1088/1674-4527/21/6/131 |
| 关键词[WOS] | TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE ; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; EARTHS MAGNETIC-FIELD ; GLOBAL CLOUD COVERAGE ; GALACTIC COSMIC-RAYS ; HOLE CLIMATE RECORD ; LATITUDINAL INSOLATION GRADIENTS ; RESOLUTION COHERENCE ANALYSIS ; PLANETARY TIDAL INFLUENCE ; AIR-TEMPERATURE |
| 收录类别 | SCI ; SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Astronomy & Astrophysics |
| WOS类目 | Astronomy & Astrophysics |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000684223000001 |
| 出版者 | NATL ASTRONOMICAL OBSERVATORIES, CHIN ACAD SCIENCES |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://ir.ieecas.cn/handle/361006/16913 |
| 专题 | 古环境研究室 |
| 通讯作者 | Connolly, Ronan |
| 作者单位 | 1.Ctr Environm Res & Earth Sci CERES, Salem, MA 01970 USA 2.Harvard Smithsonian Ctr Astrophys, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA 3.Armagh Observ, Coll Hill, Armagh BT61 9DG, North Ireland 4.Comis Invest Cient Prov Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina 5.Univ Tecnol Nacl, Grp Estudios Ambientales, Colon 332, RA-2900 Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina 6.Univ Nacl Tucuman, Fac Ciencias Exactas & Tecnol, Lab Fis Atmosfera, Av Independencia 1800, RA-4000 San Miguel De Tucuman, Argentina 7.Univ Nacl Tucuman, Consejo Nacl Invest Cient & Tecn, Inst Fis Noroeste Argentino, RA-4000 San Miguel De Tucuman, Argentina 8.Moscow MV Lomonosov State Univ, Fac Geog, Leninskie Gory St 1, Moscow 119991, Russia 9.Helmut Schmidt Univ, Hamburg, Germany 10.Tennessee State Univ, Ctr Excellence Informat Syst, Nashville, TN 37209 USA 11.Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, Phys Geog, Oslo, Norway 12.Univ Delaware, Coll Earth Ocean & Environm, Newark, DE 19716 USA 13.Inst Hydrog Geoecol & Climate Sci, Hauptstr 47, CH-6315 Ageri, Switzerland 14.Univ Naples Federico II, Complesso Univ Monte S Angelo, Dept Earth Sci Environm & Georesources, Via Cinthia 21, I-80126 Naples, Italy 15.UiT Arctic Univ Norway, Dept Phys & Technol, N-9037 Tromso, Norway 16.ELKH Inst Earth Phys & Space Sci, Csatkai Utca 6-8, H-9400 Sopron, Hungary 17.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA 18.Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico 19.Act Cav Radiometer Irradiance Monitor ACRIM, Coronado, CA 92118 USA 20.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Earth Environm, State Key Lab Loess & Quaternary Geol, Xian 710061, Peoples R China 21.Shaoxing Univ, Dept Math & Phys, Shaoxing, Peoples R China 22.Univ Oxford, Dept AOP Phys, Oxford, England |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Connolly, Ronan,Soon, Willie,Connolly, Michael,et al. How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate[J]. RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS,2021,21(6):68. |
| APA | Connolly, Ronan.,Soon, Willie.,Connolly, Michael.,Baliunas, Sallie.,Berglund, Johan.,...&Zhang, Weijia.(2021).How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate.RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS,21(6),68. |
| MLA | Connolly, Ronan,et al."How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate".RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS 21.6(2021):68. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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