Effects of Excessive Equatorial Cold Tongue Bias on the Projections of Tropical Pacific Climate Change. Part II: The Extreme El Nino Frequency in CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble

doi:10.3390/atmos12070851

IEECAS OpenIR > 黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室（2010~）

	Effects of Excessive Equatorial Cold Tongue Bias on the Projections of Tropical Pacific Climate Change. Part II: The Extreme El Nino Frequency in CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble
	Li, Gen 1,2; Zhang, Zhiyuan 1,3; Lu, Bo 4,5
通讯作者	Li, Gen(ligen@hhu.edu.cn) ; Lu, Bo(bolu@cma.gov.cn)
	2021-07-01
发表期刊	ATMOSPHERE
卷号	12 期号:7 页码:22
摘要	Under increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, climate models tend to project a warmer sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific than in the western equatorial Pacific. This El Nino-like warming pattern may induce an increase in the projected occurrence frequency of extreme El Nino events. The current models, however, commonly suffer from an excessive westward extension of the equatorial Pacific cold tongue accompanied by insufficient equatorial western Pacific precipitation. By comparing the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 experiments with the historical simulations based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), a "present-future" relationship among climate models was identified: models with insufficient equatorial western Pacific precipitation error would have a weaker mean El Nino-like warming pattern as well as a lower increase in the frequency of extreme El Nino events under increased GHG forcing. Using this "present-future" relationship and the observed precipitation in the equatorial western Pacific, this study calibrated the climate projections in the tropical Pacific. The corrected projections showed a stronger El Nino-like pattern of mean changes in the future, consistent with our previous study. In particular, the projected increased occurrence of extreme El Nino events under RCP 8.5 forcing are underestimated by 30-35% in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble before the corrections. This implies an increased risk of the El Nino-related weather and climate disasters in the future.
关键词	extreme El Nino frequency observational constraint model bias Pacific cold tongue El Nino-like warming
DOI	10.3390/atmos12070851
关键词[WOS]	SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; WESTERN PACIFIC ; GLOBAL TEMPERATURE ; ATMOSPHERIC BRIDGE ; COUPLED MODEL ; FOREST-FIRES ; ENSO EVENTS ; CIRCULATION ; PATTERNS
收录类别	SCI ; SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	Natural Science Foundation of China[41975097] ; Natural Science Foundation of China[41831175] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[B210201015] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[B200202138] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2018YFC1506002] ; Open fund of State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology[520013212]
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
项目资助者	Natural Science Foundation of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Open fund of State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000676006300001
出版者	MDPI
引用统计	被引频次：3[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.ieecas.cn/handle/361006/16859
专题	黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室（2010~）
通讯作者	Li, Gen; Lu, Bo
作者单位	1.Hohai Univ, Coll Oceanog, Nanjing 210098, Peoples R China 2.Southern Marine Sci & Engn Guangdong Lab Zhuhai, Zhuhai 519082, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Earth Environm, State Key Lab Loess & Quaternary Geol, Xian 710061, Peoples R China 4.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Lab Climate Studies, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 5.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, CMA NJU Joint Lab Climate Predict Studies, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Gen,Zhang, Zhiyuan,Lu, Bo. Effects of Excessive Equatorial Cold Tongue Bias on the Projections of Tropical Pacific Climate Change. Part II: The Extreme El Nino Frequency in CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble[J]. ATMOSPHERE,2021,12(7):22.
APA	Li, Gen,Zhang, Zhiyuan,&Lu, Bo.(2021).Effects of Excessive Equatorial Cold Tongue Bias on the Projections of Tropical Pacific Climate Change. Part II: The Extreme El Nino Frequency in CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble.ATMOSPHERE,12(7),22.
MLA	Li, Gen,et al."Effects of Excessive Equatorial Cold Tongue Bias on the Projections of Tropical Pacific Climate Change. Part II: The Extreme El Nino Frequency in CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble".ATMOSPHERE 12.7(2021):22.