| Enhanced El Nino-Southern Oscillation Variability in Recent Decades | |
| Grothe, Pamela R.1,2; Cobb, Kim M.1; Liguori, Giovanni3,4; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele1; Capotondi, Antonietta5; Lu, Yanbin6; Cheng, Hai7,8; Edwards, R. Lawrence7; Southon, John R.9; Santos, Guaciara M.9; Deocampo, Daniel M.10; Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean1; Chen, Tianran1; Sayani, Hussein R.11; Thompson, Diane M.1; Conroy, Jessica L.12; Moore, Andrea L.13,14; Townsend, Kayla2; Hagos, Melat1; O'Connor, Gemma15; Toth, Lauren T.16 | |
| 通讯作者 | Grothe, Pamela R.(pgrothe@umw.edu) |
| 2020-04-16 | |
| 发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
 |
| ISSN | 0094-8276 |
| 卷号 | 47期号:7页码:8 |
| 摘要 | The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the largest source of year-to-year global climate variability. While Earth system models suggest a range of possible shifts in ENSO properties under continued greenhouse gas forcing, many centuries of preindustrial climate data are required to detect a potential shift in the properties of recent ENSO extremes. Here we reconstruct the strength of ENSO variations over the last 7,000 years with a new ensemble of fossil coral oxygen isotope records from the Line Islands, located in the central equatorial Pacific. The corals document a significant decrease in ENSO variance of similar to 20% from 3,000 to 5,000 years ago, coinciding with changes in spring/fall precessional insolation. We find that ENSO variability over the last five decades is similar to 25% stronger than during the preindustrial. Our results provide empirical support for recent climate model projections showing an intensification of ENSO extremes under greenhouse forcing. Plain Language Summary Recent modeling studies suggest that El Nino will intensify due to greenhouse warming. Here new coral reconstructions of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) record sustained, significant changes in ENSO variability over the last 7,000 years and imply that ENSO extremes of the last 50 years are significantly stronger than those of the preindustrial era in the central tropical Pacific. These records suggest that El Nino events already may be intensifying due to anthropogenic climate change. |
| 关键词 | El Nino-Southern Oscillation coral paleoclimate anthropogenic climate change Holocene climate change |
| DOI | 10.1029/2019GL083906 |
| 关键词[WOS] | TROPICAL PACIFIC CLIMATE ; NINO/SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; ENSO ; MIDHOLOCENE ; PRECIPITATION ; FREQUENCY ; VARIANCE ; EVENTS ; RECORD ; OCEAN |
| 收录类别 | SCI ; SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 资助项目 | National Science Foundation[1502832] ; National Science Foundation[1446343] ; National Science Foundation[1029020] ; National Science Foundation[1349599] ; National Science Foundation of China[41888101] ; U.S. Geological Survey and National Science Foundation[1535007] ; Sigma Delta Epsilon-Graduate Women in Science fellowship ; NOAA's Climate Program Office and DOE's Office of Science |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology |
| 项目资助者 | National Science Foundation ; National Science Foundation of China ; U.S. Geological Survey and National Science Foundation ; Sigma Delta Epsilon-Graduate Women in Science fellowship ; NOAA's Climate Program Office and DOE's Office of Science |
| WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000560367600004 |
| 出版者 | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://ir.ieecas.cn/handle/361006/15213 |
| 专题 | 现代环境研究室 |
| 通讯作者 | Grothe, Pamela R. |
| 作者单位 | 1.Georgia Inst Technol, Sch Earth & Atmospher Sci, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA 2.Univ Mary Washington, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Fredericksburg, VA USA 3.Monash Univ, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Melbourne, Vic, Australia 4.Monash Univ, Sch Earth Atmosphere & Environm, Melbourne, Vic, Australia 5.NOAA, Earth Syst Res Lab, Phys Sci Div, Boulder, CO USA 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Earth Environm, Xian, Peoples R China 7.Univ Minnesota, Dept Earth Sci, Minneapolis, MN USA 8.Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Inst Global Environm Change, Xian, Peoples R China 9.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA USA 10.Georgia State Univ, Dept Geosci, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA 11.Chinese Acad Sci, South China Sea Inst Oceanol, Guangzhou, Peoples R China 12.Univ Arizona, Dept Geosci, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA 13.Univ Illinois, Dept Geol, Urbana, IL USA 14.Univ Illinois, Dept Plant Biol, Urbana, IL USA 15.Univ Washington, Dept Earth & Space Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA 16.US Geol Survey, St Petersburg Coastal & Marine Sci Ctr, St Petersburg, FL USA |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Grothe, Pamela R.,Cobb, Kim M.,Liguori, Giovanni,et al. Enhanced El Nino-Southern Oscillation Variability in Recent Decades[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,47(7):8. |
| APA | Grothe, Pamela R..,Cobb, Kim M..,Liguori, Giovanni.,Di Lorenzo, Emanuele.,Capotondi, Antonietta.,...&Toth, Lauren T..(2020).Enhanced El Nino-Southern Oscillation Variability in Recent Decades.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,47(7),8. |
| MLA | Grothe, Pamela R.,et al."Enhanced El Nino-Southern Oscillation Variability in Recent Decades".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 47.7(2020):8. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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