中国科学院地球环境研究所机构知识库

July-June precipitation has been reconstructed back to A.D. 1464 for the Baluntai region on the southern slope of the central Tien Shan Mountains, China, using the Picea schrenkiana tree-ring width. The reconstruction explains the variance of 51% in the observed precipitation from 1959 to 2005. By employing a 21-year moving average to the reconstruction, nine periods with above average reconstructed precipitation comprised similar to 1474-1503, 1550-1577, 1588-1619, 1658-1713, 1790-1812, 1833-1867, 1890-1907, 1923-1944, and 1988-1995 similar to; eight periods with below average reconstruction consisted of 1504-1549, 1578-1587, 1620-1657, 1714-1789, 1813-1832, 1868-1889, 1908-1922 and 1945-1987. The wet/dry periods of the reconstructed precipitation correspond well with other reconstructions. Some droughts in the historical documents are also precisely captured in the reconstruction. Precipitation variations for the southern slope of the central Tien Shan Mountains are roughly synchronous with that of the northern slope in the recent -300 year. Power spectral and wavelet analysis demonstrated the existence of significant similar to 100-y, similar to 60-y, similar to 50-y, similar to 16-y, similar to 10-y and similar to 2-y cycles of variability.